In case I forget to project a game like I did last night (the best part about medical school is partying after those exams are over ... oops), here's a table of my projections.

Posted at 08:50 AM | Permalink | in Bowl Games | Comments (4)

Navy Midshipmen (7-4) Independent vs.
Colorado State Rams (5-3, 6-5) Mountain West Conference

This game features two teams with one-dimensional offenses. Navy, of course, is as one-dimensional as they come, featuring a wishbone option offense that ranks last through the air and first on the ground. Conversely, Colorado State's offense relies on the arm of Justin Holland, who completed 62 percent of his passes for 2804 yards, 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.

When examining these statistics, it's important to remember who the competition was for each school. For the past few years, Navy has played one of the weakest schedules in college football. This year's version did feature some quality teams, including Notre Dame, Rutgers, Stanford, and Maryland. Colorado State's schedule is somewhat stronger, but not so much so to be of great consequence. The Rams did have more success against the two teams' common opponent, Air Force, but one may be inclined to chalk that up to the military academies' annual rivalry.

So what's my point, as I've now babbled about a bunch of stuff that I say is inconsequential? Well, these two teams are difficult to compare based on past performances. On the other hand, the Naval Academy has the most underrated coach in America in Paul Johnson. Anybody who's been watching this team can attest to this man's genius. Despite the UTEP debacle, I'm going with coaching again.

Prediction: Navy 27 - Colorado State 24
Confidence score: 8
Final: Navy 51 - Colorado State 30

My 2005-06 Record: 3-1 57 pts.

Posted at 03:00 AM | Permalink | in Bowl Games | Comments (0)

California Golden Bears (4-4, 7-4) Pacific-10 Conference vs.
Brigham Young Cougars (5-3, 6-5) Mountain West Conference

On paper, this one isn't pretty. The Cougars match up very poorly against the pass, ranking 105th out of 117 in pass defense. The Bears have not exactly lit up the world with their passing attack, but that will have to change if Cal wants to win this game. Bronco Mendenhall likes to stack the box to shut down the run. If Cal coach Jeff Tedford tries to force his 10th-ranked rushing game, his offensive strength in 2005, he could be facing a lot of three-and-out situations early. Tedford is renowned for his ability to adjust to his opponents, and in this situation I think that means you'll see the Bears go to the air. Look for Cal to incorporate lots of slants and screens to create a sidelines-style pseudo-running game. The BYU pass rush will penetrate the Cal offensive line early and often, necessitating conservative formations and quick dumps. Every now and then, though, Cal should be able to steal enough time to find the deep route.

Based on what I've seen from BYU's defense this year, if Cal establishes this sort of short-passing game, this contest will be over quickly. The Cougars' coaching staff is keenly aware of its squad's shortcomings in the secondary, and they'll be unwilling to shift from the heavy blitz attack.

Prediction: California 35 - Brigham Young 20
Confidence score: 21
Final: California 35 - Brigham Young 28

My 2005-06 Record: 2-1 49 pts.

Posted at 03:00 AM | Permalink | in Bowl Games | Comments (0)

UTEP Miners (5-3, 8-3) Conference USA vs.
Toledo Rockets (6-2, 8-3) Mid-American Conference

Smile if you like offense. Both UTEP and Toledo rank in the top 25 in total yards and scoring. UTEP attacks through the air (5th in NCAA in passing), while Toledo grinds it out on the ground (12th). That's not to say either of these offenses is one-sided. Toledo QB Bruce Gradkowski amassed 2171 yards this season, throwing 24 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Meanwhile, Marcus Thomas and Tyler Ebell split halfback duties for the Miners, combining for 1256 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Defense is another story. UTEP ranks 53rd in the country, allowing 365 yards/game, while Toledo boasts the 22nd best total defense, allowing roughly 40 less yards/game. The Rockets have held their opponents this season to under 200 yards/game through the air, a statistic that favors them in this matchup.

With all of that said, I'm going to go against the numbers. I'm impressed with UTEP coach Mike Price, and I think he'll be the difference in this game.

Post-game commentary: The moral of the story, boys and girls, is don't go against the facts.

Prediction: UTEP 38 - Toledo 34
Confidence score: 4
Final: Toledo 45 - UTEP 13

My 2005-06 Record: 1-1 28 pts.

Posted at 03:00 AM | Permalink | in Bowl Games | Comments (1)

Arkansas State Indians (5-2 ,6-5) Sun Belt Conference vs.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (5-3, 6-5) Conference USA

After a two-week hiatus, Division I-A college football is back. Sort of. Sun Belt champion Arkansas State Indians (6-5) enters its first bowl game in program history as a huge underdog, and rightfully so. The Indians make their living running the football, amassing 200 yards/game on the ground this season. That may have (barely) worked in an even weaker than usual Sun Belt conference, but it won't work tonight, especially after Southern Mississippi (6-5) jumps out to an early lead. Indians QB Nick Noce did complete 55.5 percent of his passes this year, but his team is just 2-5 in games in which he attempts more than 20 passes. Expect him to have to throw tonight, which as the numbers suggest, is a bad sign for Arkansas State.

Southern Miss can at least boast that all five of its losses (Alabama, Tulsa, NC State, Houston, and Memphis) came against bowl-bound teams. Omitting a 17-point loss to Tulsa, the other four defeats came at a combined total of 18 points (4.5/game). Compare that to Arkansas State, whose losses include Missouri, Oklahoma State, Louisiana Monroe, Middle Tennessee State, and Army. Only the Louisiana Monroe game was decided by less than ten points.

I could go on, but the point is clear. Arkansas State is terrible.

Prediction: Southern Miss 41 - Arkansas State 13
Confidence score: 28
Final: Southern Miss 31 - Arkansas State 19

My 2005-06 Record: 1-0 28 pts.

Posted at 01:25 PM | Permalink | in Bowl Games | Comments (0)

We're down to only two weekends of college football, but there are still plenty of things that can happen. Even if all of the favorites were to win out, the BCS picture is still hazy for the moment. Obviously, USC and Texas would meet in the Rose Bowl; LSU would represent the SEC in the Sugar Bowl; Virginia Tech would represent the ACC in the Orange Bowl; West Virginia would receive an automatic berth for winning the Big East. But who receives the two at-large berths?

Scenario 1: Assuming Notre Dame beats Stanford this Saturday in Palo Alto, it's safe to assume that the Irish would get one at-large berth. Selecting the other at-large team could get tricky, as there are two teams that are both very deserving—Oregon and Ohio State. Both teams have already finished their seasons. Oregon finished 10-1, their only loss coming against #1 USC, 45-13. Ohio State finished 9-2, with their losses coming against #2 Texas, 25-22, and #4 Penn State, 17-10.

So which team is more deserving? There seems to be no consensus among the experts. ESPN's Ivan Maisel and Pat Forde and College Football Blog's very own Gerry Meskill are all picking Ohio State as the second at-large team. On the other hand, CBS SportsLine and SI.com's Stewart Mandel are both picking Oregon.

The decision may come down to whom the Fiesta Bowl selects with its first pick. Again assuming there are no more upsets for the remainder of the season, the Fiesta Bowl would get to select first among the other three BCS games and would likely take either Penn State or Notre Dame. The Orange Bowl would then likely select whomever the Fiesta Bowl does not take. So a Notre Dame - Penn State BCS matchup, as sexy as it would be, seems to be an impossibility, and will have to wait until Sept. 9, 2006, when the two teams will meet in Notre Dame Stadium.

If the Fiesta Bowl wants Penn State, then Oregon would be a lock as their opponent. They wouldn't want to stage a Penn State - Ohio State rematch featuring two Big Ten teams. If they take Notre Dame, however, either Oregon or Ohio State would be a good matchup for the Irish.

So which is it? Penn State - Oregon, Notre Dame - Oregon, or Notre Dame - Ohio State? If I had to guess, I'd say Notre Dame - Oregon. The Ducks have a better record than the Bucks and I doubt the Fiesta Bowl committee would be too thrilled about having Ohio State compete in their bowl game for the second consecutive year and the third time in four years. Eventually, enough is enough. So, assuming no more upsets, my BCS projections are as follows:

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Texas
Orange Bowl: Penn State vs. Virginia Tech
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Oregon

In my opinion, this would be the teams that are selected by the BCS bowl game committees. I'm wondering, however, whether or not these pairings would be adjusted by a clause included at the end of the selection order guidelines. The clause states:

The pairings established by this selection process may be adjusted by the conference and institutions participating in the BCS, in consultation with the BCS bowls and ABC, in the interest of creating the most exciting and competitive post season matchups possible.

Could this be the ticket to a dream matchup between Notre Dame and Penn State in either the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl? That would leave us with an Oregon - Virginia Tech matchup or could possibly open the door up for an Ohio State - Virginia Tech matchup in the Orange Bowl. The bottom line is nothing is set in stone, even if there are no more upsets for the rest of the year.

So what about the possibility of upsets then? Things could get quite chaotic in a hurry if, say, UCLA were to beat USC and/or Texas were to fall to either Texas A&M or their Big 12 Championship Game opponent. Below are some other possible scenarios:

Scenario 2: UCLA beats USC and everything else goes according to plan. USC would still get an automatic BCS berth by winning the Pac-10 championship. UCLA would likely get an at-large berth and both Oregon and Ohio State would be squeezed out. In this scenario:

Rose Bowl: Texas vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. USC
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs. UCLA

Of course the problem with this scenario is that it puts USC in the Orange Bowl for the second year in a row and the third time in four years. You can't put them in them in the Fiesta Bowl vs. Notre Dame because that would be a rematch. Another option would be to move USC to the Sugar Bowl against West Virginia and have Virginia Tech play LSU in the Orange Bowl.

Scenario 3: Texas A&M beats Texas and everything else goes according to plan. Texas would still get an automatic berth for winning the Big 12 championship. The Orange Bowl would select first, not the Fiesta Bowl. In this scenario:

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Oregon

This scenario benefits Oregon greatly. It almost assures them an at-large spot because the Fiesta Bowl would not want to feature a Texas - Ohio State rematch.

Scenario 4: Texas loses the Big 12 Championship Game and everything else goes according to plan. Let's assume Colorado is the Big 12 winner in this scenario. Colorado would get the automatic bid but Texas would likely still get an at-large spot. Again, the Orange Bowl would select first in this scenario:

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl: Texas vs. Virginia Tech
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Colorado

Scenario 5: Texas loses their final two games and everything else goes according to plan. Again, let's assume Colorado is the Big 12 champ. In this scenario, Texas would be out of luck and we'd likely get a rematch of the 2002 Fiesta Bowl:

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Colorado vs. Oregon

Scenario 6: All hell breaks loose. USC and Texas both lose one game. Texas loses to Colorado in the Big 12 Championship Game. The situation gets ugly in a hurry, especially if you're a UCLA fan. USC would still get an automatic berth and UCLA would likely be on the outside looking in, despite having beaten USC and finishing with the same number of losses. The Sugar Bowl would select first after losing LSU to the Rose Bowl. Here it is:

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. LSU
Orange Bowl: Texas vs. Virginia Tech
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Colorado

Scenario 6b: Of course, if UCLA were to beat USC on the final week of the season and assuming Texas had lost to Colorado, UCLA, at 10-1, just might find their way to that #1 or #2 spot as an at-large team. It's not unreasonable to assume considering they would have slayed the giant. Then we would see:

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. UCLA
Orange Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Colorado

Scenario 7: USC loses once. Texas loses twice. Assume UCLA is not ranked #1 or #2. (If they were, look at scenario 6b.) Here we go:

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. LSU
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. UCLA
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Colorado

So there you have it. That's quite the list of scenarios. And that's only scratching the surface of what could possibly transpire over the next 12 days. And in fact, it's only my best guess as to what would happen. If you have some other thoughts, feel free to share them.

Posted at 07:02 PM | Permalink | in Bowl Games | Comments (0)