Arkansas State Indians (5-2 ,6-5) Sun Belt Conference vs.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (5-3, 6-5) Conference USA

After a two-week hiatus, Division I-A college football is back. Sort of. Sun Belt champion Arkansas State Indians (6-5) enters its first bowl game in program history as a huge underdog, and rightfully so. The Indians make their living running the football, amassing 200 yards/game on the ground this season. That may have (barely) worked in an even weaker than usual Sun Belt conference, but it won't work tonight, especially after Southern Mississippi (6-5) jumps out to an early lead. Indians QB Nick Noce did complete 55.5 percent of his passes this year, but his team is just 2-5 in games in which he attempts more than 20 passes. Expect him to have to throw tonight, which as the numbers suggest, is a bad sign for Arkansas State.

Southern Miss can at least boast that all five of its losses (Alabama, Tulsa, NC State, Houston, and Memphis) came against bowl-bound teams. Omitting a 17-point loss to Tulsa, the other four defeats came at a combined total of 18 points (4.5/game). Compare that to Arkansas State, whose losses include Missouri, Oklahoma State, Louisiana Monroe, Middle Tennessee State, and Army. Only the Louisiana Monroe game was decided by less than ten points.

I could go on, but the point is clear. Arkansas State is terrible.

Prediction: Southern Miss 41 - Arkansas State 13
Confidence score: 28
Final: Southern Miss 31 - Arkansas State 19

My 2005-06 Record: 1-0 28 pts.