California Golden Bears (4-4, 7-4) Pacific-10 Conference vs.
Brigham Young Cougars (5-3, 6-5) Mountain West Conference

On paper, this one isn't pretty. The Cougars match up very poorly against the pass, ranking 105th out of 117 in pass defense. The Bears have not exactly lit up the world with their passing attack, but that will have to change if Cal wants to win this game. Bronco Mendenhall likes to stack the box to shut down the run. If Cal coach Jeff Tedford tries to force his 10th-ranked rushing game, his offensive strength in 2005, he could be facing a lot of three-and-out situations early. Tedford is renowned for his ability to adjust to his opponents, and in this situation I think that means you'll see the Bears go to the air. Look for Cal to incorporate lots of slants and screens to create a sidelines-style pseudo-running game. The BYU pass rush will penetrate the Cal offensive line early and often, necessitating conservative formations and quick dumps. Every now and then, though, Cal should be able to steal enough time to find the deep route.

Based on what I've seen from BYU's defense this year, if Cal establishes this sort of short-passing game, this contest will be over quickly. The Cougars' coaching staff is keenly aware of its squad's shortcomings in the secondary, and they'll be unwilling to shift from the heavy blitz attack.

Prediction: California 35 - Brigham Young 20
Confidence score: 21
Final: California 35 - Brigham Young 28

My 2005-06 Record: 2-1 49 pts.